Situation room

Bloomberg Business 17h ago

OpenAI Expects $70 Billion in Annualized Revenue by End of 2026

Live markets

Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $700B and $800B at the end of November 2026?

Yes 2% No 98%

Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $700B and $800B at the end of October 2026?

Yes 1% No 99%

Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $600B and $700B at the end of November 2026?

Yes 3% No 97%

Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $600B and $700B at the end of October 2026?

Yes 3% No 97%

Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $800B and $900B at the end of November 2026?

Yes 3% No 97%

The Wall Street Journal 18h ago

Iran and Houthis Try to Regain Upper Hand in Hormuz With Spate of New Attacks

Live markets

Houthis seize an oil tanker by October 31, 2026?

Yes 8% No 92%

BBC 18h ago

Zack Polanski failed to show leadership over Zionism motion, ex-Green leader says

Live markets

Zack Polanski out as Green Party Leader by March 31?

Yes 38% No 62%

Zack Polanski out as Green Party Leader by December 31?

Yes 22% No 78%

Zack Polanski out as Green Party Leader by October 31?

Yes 46% No 54%

France 24 19h ago

US files new torture charges against Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro and wife Cilia Flores

Live markets

Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?

Yes 56% No 44%

Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?

Yes 1% No 99%

Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?

Yes 5% No 95%

Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?

Yes 29% No 71%

Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?

Yes 6% No 94%

The New York Times 20h ago

How Trump Has Alienated Republican Voters

Live markets

Will the Maine Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races?

Yes 33% No 67%

Will Republicans win the Texas and Maine Senate seats, and Democrats win Michigan?

Yes 9% No 91%

Will the Michigan Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races?

Yes 38% No 62%

Will Democrats win the Texas and Maine Senate seats, and Republicans win Michigan?

Yes 5% No 95%

Will Republicans win the Texas and Michigan Senate seats, and Democrats win Maine?

Yes 7% No 93%

Financial Times News 20h ago

US telcos stocks tumble after SpaceX announces spectrum acquisition

Live markets

T-Mobile US & SpaceX merger/acquisition announced in 2026?

Yes 4% No 96%

Business Insider 20h ago

'OpenAI cannot make AI safe on its own,' fired researchers warn

Live markets

OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?

Yes 24% No 76%

OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 31?

Yes 43% No 57%

Frontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?

Yes 12% No 88%

SpaceXAI announces a training pause by October 31?

Yes 4% No 96%

Meta announces a training pause by October 31?

Yes 24% No 76%

Bloomberg Business 20h ago

AI Debt Spree Hammers Tech Debt as Traders Rush to Reprice Risk

Live markets

AI bubble burst in 2026?

Yes 6% No 94%

The New York Times 21h ago

'Breathtaking,' 'Devastating': Mathematics Reels After New OpenAI Release

Live markets

Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?

Yes 16% No 84%

Will AI solve 4 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?

Yes 0% No 100%

Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?

Yes 0% No 100%

Will AI solve 5 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?

Yes 1% No 99%

Will AI solve the Riemann Hypothesis in 2026?

Yes 7% No 93%

Reuters 21h ago

Storm Simon seen exploding into major hurricane before hitting Mexico

Live markets

Will Simon peak at Category 4?

Yes 46% No 55%

Will Simon peak at Category 5?

Yes 15% No 85%

Will Simon peak at Category 2?

Yes 7% No 93%

Will Simon peak at Category 3?

Yes 30% No 70%

Will Simon peak at Category 1 or weaker?

Yes 3% No 97%

Reuters 21h ago

Kremlin: Russia agrees with Rubio that Ukraine conflict is in a stalemate

Live markets

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?

Yes 4% No 96%

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?

Yes 26% No 74%

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?

Yes 49% No 51%

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?

Yes 62% No 38%

Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in Qatar by December 31, 2027?

Yes 2% No 98%

Axios 21h ago

Kushner, Witkoff to pitch "new ideas" to end Russia-Ukraine war

Live markets

Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the United States by December 31, 2027?

Yes 10% No 90%

Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?

Yes 48% No 52%

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?

Yes 62% No 38%

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?

Yes 4% No 96%

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?

Yes 49% No 51%

Axios 21h ago

Hurricane Isaias strengthens to Category 2 storm in Gulf

Live markets

Will Isaias make landfall in Louisiana as a hurricane?

Yes 6% No 94%

Will Isaias make landfall in Mississippi as a hurricane?

Yes 10% No 90%

Will Isaias make landfall in Alabama as a hurricane?

Yes 55% No 46%

Will Isaias peak at Category 2?

Yes 51% No 49%

Will Isaias peak at Category 4?

Yes 9% No 91%

The Wall Street Journal 22h ago

Opinion | Spain's Snap Election Is a Chance to Reject Pedro Sánchez

Live markets

Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?

Yes 18% No 82%

Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?

Yes 1% No 99%

No-confidence vote against Spain PM Sanchez by December 31?

Yes 3% No 97%

Will Óscar Puente be the next Prime Minister of Spain?

Yes 0% No 100%

Will Pepa Millán be the next Prime Minister of Spain?

Yes 0% No 100%

Reuters 22h ago

ECB policymakers, accounts dampen near-term rate hike bets

Live markets

Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?

Yes 10% No 90%

Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?

Yes 0% No 100%

Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting?

Yes 0% No 100%

Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?

Yes 90% No 10%

Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?

Yes 76% No 24%

Washington Post 22h ago

Speaker Johnson says he doesn't know what's next for him if GOP loses House

Live markets

Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31?

Yes 10% No 90%

Mike Johnson out as Speaker by October 31?

Yes 12% No 88%

Will Mike Johnson be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?

Yes 7% No 93%

Reuters 22h ago

US bank investors to focus on impact of higher rates, deals outlook in Q3 earnings

Live markets

Will JPMorgan Chase fail by end of 2026?

Yes 2% No 98%

Reuters 22h ago

Italy's Meloni forces through new electoral law ahead of vote, opposition cries foul

Live markets

Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

Yes 55% No 46%

Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

Yes 19% No 81%

Will Matteo Salvini be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

Yes 1% No 99%

Reuters 22h ago

Italy's Meloni forces through new electoral law ahead of vote, opposition cries foul

Live markets

Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

Yes 55% No 46%

Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

Yes 19% No 81%

Will Matteo Salvini be the next Prime Minister of Italy?

Yes 1% No 99%

Reuters 22h ago

As Munir's military takes on Gulf role, Pakistan's parliament is not involved

Live markets

Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?

Yes 31% No 69%

Pakistan military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?

Yes 40% No 60%