Carney says Canada and US will work on trade deal in coming weeks

Carney said the call, which his office confirmed took place Saturday, built on recent discussions about the outlines of a mutually beneficial deal. The White House welcomed continued engagement and said the administration was working toward finalizing details, but did not announce terms or confirm an agreement. Carney’s stated timetable is for teams to work in the coming weeks.²³

The renewed talks follow an August breakdown. Al Jazeera reported that Trump imposed a 50 percent levy on about $20 billion of Canadian goods, equivalent to 5.5 percent of Canada’s exports, and that Canada retaliated with tariffs on a range of US goods. Earlier in the week, Carney had said an agreement was not yet within reach before the midterm elections. Reporting also says possible relief for US tariffs on Canadian steel and autos has been discussed, but no details have been announced. In October, Carney said any progress reflected Washington moving closer to Canada’s position, while Ottawa’s negotiating position remained unchanged.¹⁴⁵

Prediction markets on Nov. 2 put the implied probability of a US-Canada agreement to lower US tariffs being announced by Nov. 30 at about 42 percent. By contrast, the market placed an 89 percent probability on Trump or the White House officially announcing some tariff decrease by Dec. 31. The outcomes differ: the first requires a mutually accepted diplomatic agreement, while the second can be met by an official US announcement. The gap suggests expectations are higher for a US tariff-cut announcement than for a completed bilateral deal on the earlier deadline.^M1M34