YOUR DAILY PERSPECTIVE

AI spending concerns weigh on Asian stocks ahead of major tech earnings

Asian shares slipped on Monday as investors questioned whether the AI investment boom can sustain its costs, putting this week’s results from Apple, AMD and Palantir in focus. Goldman Sachs expects hyperscaler capital spending to keep climbing even as US corporate earnings growth slows next year, sharpening the question of whether heavy investment can translate into profits.1

TL;DR

  • The central concern is not only the scale of AI investment, but whether earnings can keep pace as the growth rate of spending slows.1
  • The market’s high pricing for repeated AI references in Apple’s call signals attention to the company’s AI discussion, but does not establish whether its spending is producing returns.M1

Still to come

  • Apple, AMD and Palantir are due to report this week. Their results will provide the next evidence investors can assess against concerns about AI spending, cash flow and the pace of earnings growth.
  • The US payrolls report is due Friday, with markets also weighing whether a sustained stock selloff could affect the Federal Reserve’s rate path. The jobs figure will add an important economic signal alongside this week’s company results.

Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.5% and South Korea’s market lost 0.8%, while the broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan eased 0.4%. The pressure follows a rough stretch for technology stocks, including a nearly 7% October decline in the Nasdaq and a near-29% drop in Intel shares on Friday. Reuters reported that worries about negative cash flow and the scale of AI spending had also driven up the cost of insuring against corporate defaults last week.1

The spending-versus-returns tension is visible in Goldman Sachs’ forecasts: hyperscaler capital expenditure is expected to nearly double to $800 billion this year and rise to $1.2 trillion in 2027, while S&P 500 earnings-per-share growth is forecast to slow from nearly 30% in 2026 to 18% next year. Goldman strategist Ben Snider wrote that earnings growth remains strong but is no longer accelerating, and that the growth rate of AI spending appears to be peaking. Apple, AMD and Palantir are due to report this week, giving investors fresh results to weigh against those concerns.1

A prediction market put an 87% implied probability, as of Nov. 2, that Apple would say “AI” or “artificial intelligence” at least 20 times during its earnings call scheduled for later that day. That prices the likelihood of repeated AI references, not whether Apple’s results or investment returns will satisfy investors, but it underscores how closely the call’s AI discussion is being watched.1M1

Sources

  1. Asia shares bend under AI stress; Apple earnings loom · Reuters · Nov 2

AI-generated from the linked reporting and prediction-market data. Market prices reflect traders’ expectations and can change.

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