OpenAI confirms revenue run rate near $50 billion
OpenAI said its annualized revenue run rate was about $50 billion at the end of September, correcting reports that had put it near $70 billion. The discrepancy highlights how different accounting methods can muddy comparisons between AI companies—and how closely investors are watching their growth.12
This brief is being refreshed as the reporting or market odds change.
TL;DR
- The $50 billion and $70 billion figures used different revenue treatments, making the run-rate comparison less straightforward than the headline gap suggests.12
- Prediction markets put low odds on OpenAI ending either October or November in the $700 billion–$800 billion valuation range; those bets concern private valuation, not the company’s reported revenue.1M1
- OpenAI’s next funding discussions, fuller financial disclosures and stated 2027 listing ambitions will test whether investors can assess its growth on a clearer basis.13
Across the coverage
Coverage varies in describing the earlier estimate: the Financial Times and Axios refer to roughly $70 billion, while CNBC reports $68 billion. The accounts broadly connect the gap to gross revenue from partner sales being used to compare OpenAI with Anthropic.123
Still to come
- Will OpenAI publish a fuller explanation of how it calculates its run rate and reconciles the earlier estimate with the $50 billion figure?
- What valuation and terms will emerge from OpenAI’s potential funding round?
- Will OpenAI and Anthropic provide standardized financial disclosures ahead of their expected public-market plans?
OpenAI confirmed its annualized revenue run rate was approximately $50 billion at the end of September, about $20 billion below figures widely reported the previous month. The company said reports that it had reached a $70 billion run rate were inaccurate, while adding that its run rate revenue grew 70% in the third quarter. The gap drew attention because investors use these figures to gauge demand for AI and the prospects of companies building models and data-center infrastructure.123
The discrepancy reflects a difference in accounting, not necessarily a sudden change in sales. OpenAI counts its share of certain revenue from cloud-partner deals, while Anthropic includes gross sales through partners; the latter approach can make a direct comparison difficult. Annualized run rates also project recent performance across a year, rather than reporting a full year of realized revenue. OpenAI’s earlier $70 billion figure was described as an effort to compare the companies using a gross-revenue method, though OpenAI had called it a net figure when asked by the Financial Times.123
The correction coincided with a sell-off in AI-linked stocks: the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.4% on Thursday before partly recovering Friday, according to the Financial Times. Prediction markets on October 9 put the chance of OpenAI’s valuation ending October between $700 billion and $800 billion at 0.65%, and the chance of that same range at the end of November at 1%. Those prices concern valuation, not revenue, but underline the uncertainty around how private investors may value the company as its financial metrics come under scrutiny.1M1
The stakes extend beyond the accounting debate. OpenAI is discussing a new funding round, and CNBC reported that it is eyeing a 2027 public listing; the Financial Times also said its listing had been deferred until next year. OpenAI told prospective investors it had raised its 2026 full-year revenue estimate to $35 billion from $30 billion, while the company and Anthropic face calls to provide more detailed financial reporting. Investors will be watching for clearer, comparable disclosures and for what valuation, if any, emerges from OpenAI’s fundraising discussions.13
Sources
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The hazy OpenAI growth metric driving Wall Street · Financial Times News · Oct 9
AI-generated from the linked reporting and prediction-market data. Market prices reflect traders’ expectations and can change.